Another wave of geopolitical collisions

 

Earthquakes and tremors are primarily caused by the sudden release of energy from the Earth's crust, usually when tectonic plates- huge slabs of rock- shift, slip, or collide along fault lines, sending out seismic waves. While plate tectonics is the main driver, other causes include volcanic activity, landslides, mining, fracking, and even reservoir filling, all of which can generate seismic waves or destabilize faults, leading to shaking.

In his opinion piece, published in Express Tribune on 15 December 2025, Major General Inam Ul Haque discusses the surge of upheavals in Earth’s geopolitical landscape. Referring to the recent US intervention in Venezuela, he reminds some of his readers of a phenomenon known as  Shanghaiing. In Venezuela’s case, its president was whisked away through the Trump Corollary of the Monroe Doctrine.

Elaborating on the highly volatile global situation, General Inam concludes that: 1)The US unilateralism would provide a precedent to China, Russia, and India for violating territorial integrity of sovereign nations; 2) Extension of the Monroe Doctrine to Greenland will backfire, which may result in NATO’s demise; 3) US’ global domination is facing a serious threat due to its strategic overstretch; 4)America’s military experience is limited to small-scale operations against weak states. This experience will fail if applied to China and Russia.

In 1968, the world witnessed a similar shifting of the world’s geopolitical tectonic plates, characterised by 1) Agitation against Ayub Khan’s rule;2) Leftist student revolt in France, resulting in President Charles de Gaulle’s resignation; and 3) Soviet military intervention in Czechoslovakia.

What is President Trump’s train of thought?

Trump says the US is going to run Venezuela "until we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition".   Like many US presidents before him, Trump accuses the Latin American rulers of corruption, despotism, and mismanagement. He blames Nicolás Maduro for the influx of approximately eight million Venezuelan migrants to the US. These illegal migrants, according to Trump, fled from Venezuela’s economic crisis and repression since 2013. Without providing evidence, Trump has accused Maduro of emptying his prisons and insane asylums, and "forcing" them to migrate to the US. Trump has also vowed to fight the influx of drugs - especially fentanyl and cocaine - into the US.

 Latin American leaders have criticized the US since 1823, when President Monroe, through his doctrine, declared a quarantine of the region from any possible European intervention. The Monroe Doctrine served as the legal framework that paved the way for US interventionism in South America. In 1903, taking the Monroe Doctrine as an excuse, President Theodore Roosevelt carved out Panama from Colombia.  Roosevelt wanted to build the Panama Canal.

Venezuela has the world's largest proven crude oil reserves and profits from the oil sector finance more than half of its government budget. However, its exports have been hindered by sanctions, a lack of investment, and mismanagement within Venezuela's state-run oil company. As of today, it exports nearly 900,000 barrels per day, with China as its biggest buyer. Maduro has long accused the Trump administration of attempting to depose him so the US could gain control of Venezuela's oil riches, pointing to a remark Trump made after the US seized the first oil tanker off Venezuela's coast.  

Trump’s problem with Venezuela wasn’t only drug trafficking and narco- terrorism, but his fear that Chinese and Russian companies might control its vast oil reserves more than U.S. companies. The US attack on Venezuela is an opportunity for China to boost criticism of Washington. Even if it is a remote possibility, China could use US strikes on Venezuela to strengthen its claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea islands. When discussing  India, Trump sounds disillusioned with Modi’s policy of punching above his weight.

Trump’s approach to the Middle East is based on strong support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a confrontational stance toward Iran. He points to his efforts to broker a regional peace deal and his focus on defeating Islamic terrorist groups such as ISIS. He considers Israel a “cherished ally.” As president, Trump opposed the previous bipartisan consensus by saying he was not interested in a Palestinian state. During the Hamas-Israel War, he promised to “stand proudly” with Israel. Trump considers Iran a threat to Israel and is determined to end the rule of the Ayatollahs. This, he believes, is necessary to establish Israel as the unchallenged power in the Middle East.

Trump has sought to confront China over what he says is a suite of economic abuses: intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, export and other subsidies, and economic espionage. He says aggressive action is required to protect American workers and to reduce the US’s large bilateral trade deficit.

Trump’s claim on Greenland is another provocation. Danish and other European governments are struggling to convince the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance that Greenland’s security from Russian and Chinese encroachment would best be enhanced through joint investments by the US and its European allies under the framework of NATO and the 1951 bilateral treaty between the Danish and U.S. governments.

When Trump says the US needs Greenland for U.S. security, what he really means is that he wants the US to control Greenland’s extensive, though mostly untapped and extremely hard to extract, rare earth deposits and large reserves of copper, graphite, nickel, titanium, zinc, and gold. Trump wants to go down in history as the president who did the best real estate deal for the US  since Alaska was purchased from Russia in 1867, adding trillions to the US’ net wealth.

On the Ukraine-Russia War, Trump maintains that Ukraine - not Russia - is holding up a potential peace deal. His stance is in contrast to that of European allies, who argue Moscow has little interest in ending its war in Ukraine. The U.S. intelligence reports continuously warn that Putin has not abandoned his aims of capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire. The U.S.-led negotiations have been centred in recent weeks on security guarantees for a post-war Ukraine to ensure that Russia does not invade it again after a potential peace deal. In broad terms, U.S. negotiators have persuaded Ukraine to abandon its eastern Donbas region as part of any accord with Russia. Without appearing like an alarmist, one may refer to the Sarajevo incident that triggered WWI.

 Major General Inam Ul Haque (R) is a prolific writer. This review is based on his article Crystal-gazing American unilateralism published in Express Tribune on 15 January 2025