The Politics of Surgical Strikes in the Middle East

 The recent Iran-Israel spat started with Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, a violation of diplomatic immunity under international law. The Iran-Israel rivalry is grounded in ancient territorial claims and counter-claims. According to the Old Testament, the Neo-Babylonian Empire under the rule of Nebuchadnezzar II occupied the Kingdom of Judah between 597 and 586 BCE and destroyed the temple built by King Solomon in Jerusalem. The last king of Judah, Zedekiah, was forced to watch his sons put to death, then his own eyes were gouged out and he was exiled to Babylon (modern Iraq). Several decades later, in 538 BCE, the Jews in Babylon were allowed by Cyrus the Great to return to their ancestral homeland. Initially, around 50,000 Jews returned to the Land of Judah following the decree of Cyrus as described in Ezra’s Book, whereas most remained in Babylon. 

Besides considering itself as a benefactor of Jews, Iran also claims, on sectarian grounds, the oil-rich Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf city-states dotting the southern and eastern fringes of the Arabian Peninsula. If Iran had its way, parts of the Arabian Peninsula would form an Iranian confederacy controlled by Tehran. From a larger perspective, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, with significant Shia populations, would also be absorbed into this confederacy. 

The First Iran-Iraq War was not a new phenomenon. During the Iraqi strongman Abdul Karim Qasim’s rule (1958-1963), the two countries confronted each other over ownership of Kuwait. In pursuance of its claim, in 1971 Iran occupied some small islands in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The islands belonged to the emirates of Ras al-Khaimah and Sharjah. Revolutionary Iran has only endorsed the Shah’s claim on the Arab lands, with some variations. By supporting the Palestinian cause, Iran essentially challenges the Saudi Arabian claim for the Arab leadership. On the other hand, Iran’s current rivalry with Israel is different. It considers Israel as an upstart – a usurper state founded on imitating South Africa’s Afrikaner Colonialism. 

Over the years, Palestinians and the pro-Iran militant organizations based in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, and the West Bank of River Jordan have gravitated toward Iran because they believe that they have been betrayed by the Arab rulers. Netanyahu counters the Arab/Iranian narratives by claiming that the Jews had only returned to their ancestral homeland from where they were exiled in the past. “ You can live here, but the land is ours” Netanyahu addressed the Palestinians in an interview. His claim is partially true, except on the lineage of the Zionist settlers who started streaming into Palestine, mostly from Eastern Europe, during the twilight years of the Ottoman rule. The majority of them were Khazars, converted to Judaism, not pedigreed Jews. Till recently, convertees were rejected by Judaism. Israel vows it will destroy Iran’s nuclear capability because Iran has declared it will destroy Israel. In the 21st Century, this is a modern power struggle based on ancient rivalries and prejudices. 

Shakespeare said, “Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows”. During the Iran- Iraq War, Iran, Israel, and the Arab monarchies, presently at each other’s throats in different ways, were hand-in-glove. As revealed in the IranContra scandal, during the Iran –Iraq war America was indirectly helping Saddam Hussain through the conservative Arab regimes – Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. Jordan was then also in the Saudi Arabian camp. On the other hand, America secretly facilitated the sale of arms to Iran, the subject of an American arms embargo. Some U.S. officials hoped that the arms sales would secure the release of several hostages and allow U.S. intelligence agencies to fund the Nicaraguan Contras. It was planned that Israel would ship weapons, including the TOW anti-tank missile system, to Iran, and then the United States would resupply Israel. In return, the Iranian recipients promised to do everything in their power to achieve the release of the U.S. hostages. 

We return to the Iran-Israel standoff. Is it a put-up show – a replay of India’s “Surgical-Strike” on Balakot, and Pakistan’s “Swift Retort”? We understand that surgical strikes are not made on civilian targets, as claimed by India. We also understand that both IAF and PAF are professional air forces. Whereas PAF declared that it had deliberately missed its targets, and only aimed at signaling the Indians about its capability, IAF blustered about killing 300 alleged terrorists staying in a madrassah. Apologists of Iran theorize that the Iranian counterattack was similarly designed to signal Israel about Iran’s capability to destroy the Jewish state. 

Iran and Israel have been Playing Chicken in the Middle East since 1979. Like the adversaries elsewhere, they deny ownership of their hostile acts. Iranian-supported militias, located in Syria and Lebanon, regularly attack civil and military targets in northern Israel. In the not-too-distant past, Israel used computer malware against Iran’s Uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. The Israeli operation which was code-named “Olympic Games,” was a cyber-attack in 2006, disclosed during the Obama administration, that disabled nearly 1,000 centrifuges at Natanz. That attack was believed to have prevented Iran's enrichment activities by many months. On 27 November 2020, the alleged head of Iran's nuclear weapons program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, suggested that Israel was behind Fakhrizadeh's assassination.

 The recent Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus was different. It targeted “sovereign Iranian territory”. The standoff has again highlighted the fact that both Iran and Israel lack the conventional punch to knock out each other. The power differential between Israel and Iran is so narrow that any future war between them will be a replay of the First Iran-Iraq War. It will sap the potential and energies of the entire region and suck in, wittingly or unwittingly, peripheral countries like Turkey and Pakistan into the conflict. India, as usual, will “hunt with the hounds and run with the hare”. 

 On 17 October 2021, Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar began his five-day visit to Israel by laying a wreath at a cemetery in Talpiot, Jerusalem, for British-Indian soldiers who laid down their lives in the region during WWI. The Indian Army commemorates 23 September every year as Haifa Day to remember the three British-Indian cavalry regiments - Mysore, Hyderabad, and Jodhpur Lancers that helped capture Haifa from Ottoman rule following a cavalry action by the 15th Imperial Service Cavalry Brigade. Israel was created in May 1948, thirty years after the end of WWI. The Indian Foreign Minister, and the Indian PM Modi, during an earlier visit to Israel, gave an impression as if Indian troops had fought for the emancipation of Jews, resulting in the establishment of the Jewish state. Whereas the Indian government now acknowledges the contribution of all the regiments taking part in the capture of Haifa, Modi had disowned the Hyderabad Lancers representing the Muslim state of Hyderabad. 

Saleem Akhtar Malik 

18 April 2024