.jpg)
On Afghanistan’s instability
Afghanistan’s instability acts as a catalyst that speeds up the
political and economic uncertainty in neighboring Pakistan. Afghanistan’s
predicament is compounded as Pakistan turns away to underwrite many of IEA’s
blunders. The ungrateful attitude of the Taliban leadership has forced Pakistan to press for the repatriation of illegal Afghan refugees
and bomb TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan.
Today, the problems faced by the Taliban government are:
1. Diplomatic illegitimacy that curtails the unfreezing of approximately USD 9 billion in Afghan government assets held in the US banks after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
2. A severe drought in the Southwest forces Afghans to migrate to Iran.
3. Lax border control, especially along the Durand Line makes cross-border terrorism possible.
4. Failure to put TTP under the leash.
5. Lack of unity of command within the Taliban leadership.
6. Challenge from the Northern Alliance.
7. Threat from Islamic State (Khorasan).
Afghanistan’s
poor economy and chronic droughts have, for a long time, forced its inhabitants
to seek sustenance in the irrigated plains of KP and Punjab. Smuggling across
the borders of Pakistan and Iran is a secondary phenomenon related to the quest
for food and fodder. These problems are not going to end any time soon. Human
traffic flows from poor regions to affluent regions. We see this happening between
Mexico and the US. Only the creation of wealth and job opportunities in
Afghanistan will reduce the influx of Afghans into its neighboring countries.
This will take time and the will to address these problems.
As for TTP and IS(K), it is within the power of
the Taliban to control TTP. IS(K), on
the other hand, is a US Trojan horse that will continue to haunt Pakistan and
Afghanistan till the US stops perceiving them as threats to its global order. Hamid Karzai, the former president
of Afghanistan, accused the US of working with the Islamic State of Iraq
and the Levant (ISIL) group in his country. In an exclusive interview with Al
Jazeera’s UpFront, published on 10 November 2017, and simultaneously
aired on Al Jazeera, Karzai said the US government had allowed ISIL, also
known as ISIS, to flourish inside Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai served as
the fourth president of Afghanistan from July 2002 to September 2014, including
as the first elected president of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan from
December 2004 to September 2014.
Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), along with the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS),
is the metamorphosis of the Islamic State (IS), also known by its Arabic acronym Daesh. It is
a transnational Salafi jihadist group and a former unrecognized
quasi-state. Its origins were in the Jaish al Taifa al -al-Mansurah organization
founded by Abu Omar al -al-Baghdadi in 2004, which fought
alongside al-Qaeda during the Iraqi insurgency. The group gained
global prominence in 2014, when its militants successfully captured large
territories in northwestern Iraq and eastern Syria, taking advantage of
the ongoing Syrian civil war.
An
arc of instability exists, encompassing Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and
Pakistan. Terrorism, manifested by various incarnations of the Islamic State
(IS), inflicts all these countries that, for one reason or another, remain on
the wrong side of the United States. The Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan remain
unscathed because they come under the US security umbrella. Egypt and Jordan also
have peace treaties with Israel. We do not know much about IS operations in
Iran which otherwise remains under sanctions from the US.
A recent development in
South Asia is Afghanistan seeking closer ties with India. An Indian delegation led by Indian MEA
Joint Secretary JP Singh met with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in
Kabul, marking the first high-level meeting between the Taliban regime and the
Indian government. The meeting discussed various issues, including regional
developments, political matters, and New Delhi's humanitarian assistance to
Afghanistan. The Taliban has proposed establishing a region-centric narrative
to promote regional cooperation, which was discussed with diplomats from
neighboring and regional countries, including India.
In the wider perspective, India and
the US are strategic partners. In the present scheme of things where Pakistan
is constantly losing its regional importance, the Taliban cozying up to India
will further isolate Pakistan. India has outflanked Pakistan from Iran’s Chah
Bahar port. It also runs a transport corridor between New Delhi and Kabul through
Iran. Before thinking about underwriting Afghanistan’s security, Pakistan
should put its own house in order. I have talked about creating wealth and job
opportunities in Afghanistan to address its poverty, the exodus of Afghans into
Pakistan, and to control smuggling across the Durand Line.
In the 21st Century,
huge iron, copper, and natural gas deposits have been discovered in
Afghanistan, not to mention the enormous gas reserves in Turkmenistan and
Kazakhstan, in Afghanistan’s neighborhood. Two years back lithium deposits were
discovered in Afghanistan. Lithium is used in batteries that power electric
vehicles. India drools over Afghanistan’s natural wealth but cannot have access
to it because Pakistan controls the land routes to Afghanistan. A comprehensive plan to exploit
Afghanistan’s natural resources, including its agricultural products, can bring
prosperity across the Durand Line. Prosperity is always followed by peace and
tranquility
Saleem Akhtar Malik
29 March 2024
Comments
Post a Comment