Sino-U.S. Rivalry

 

Major General Inam Ul Haque discusses various aspects of the Sino-U.S. rivalry in his opinion piece dated 11 January 2024.  He bases his analysis on comparing two articles by eminent U.S. journalist  Fareed Zakaria.  “The Arrogant Empire", written by Zakaria in the 23 March 1991 issue of Newsweek magazine, was just before the First Gulf War (17 January- 28 February 1991). This article, influenced by the lukewarm European response to the  U.S.  geostrategic goals, supported the Bush administration's argument that ‘the war will look better when it is over’.  

The same author, in "The Self Doubting Super Power" - his second article published in the January-February 2024 issue of the Foreign Affairs, observes that, whereas in 2024 powers like China, Russia, and India, etc no longer follow the US diktat,  it need not be a cause for panic and self-doubt by Washington. 

Going back, we observe that in 1991 the global balance of power concept temporarily disappeared. With the emergence of the U.S. as a hyperpower, the world no longer remained bipolar. In the same article, Zakaria believes that the world is reverting to a bipolar order. However, in the post-Cold War scenario, the erstwhile Soviet Union is replaced by China. One would agree with Zakaria's assessment of China's weaknesses -" fragile demography; lack of alliances; lighter presence in the Middle East; comparatively subdued power to influence others;  Achilles Heels in the South China Sea; lack of experience and exposure of acting big, etc.  While comparing China with the U.S., Zakaria rightly observes multicultural pluralism as the overwhelming U.S. strength.

I had written earlier that the U.S. possesses political stability through well-established and pluralistic state institutions (A “Very Stable” country, according to the Fragile States Index).On the other hand, China‘s political stability is becoming increasingly vulnerable due to 1) centrifugal forces, and 2) the opening up of Chinese society due to exposure to the application of information technology.With a US $ 12.89 trillion economy at the end of the 3rd quarter of 2023, China, after the United States, is a distant second economic power. In governance, the present-day Peoples Republic can be compared with Taiwan under the Kuomintang. Deng Xiaoping was not sure if China would follow communism in the distant future. And we should not forget that the much talked about Sino-Soviet ideological rift during the Cold War period was essentially a struggle for their respective national interests behind the façade of communism. China, as envisioned by Deng, has chosen to follow a path that will eventually lead to greater freedom and economic prosperity. For the present, it is wary of granting more liberties to its people because of the Glasnost syndrome- it fears that granting civil rights to its people like the erstwhile Soviet Union will open a Pandora's Box where the resultant chaos will be fully exploited by the U.S.