On The reasons behind the collapse of ANDSF

 

In the latest in his series of articles about the withdrawal of the US-led Coalition forces from Afghanistan, General Inam Ul Haque further dilates on the causes that led to the collapse of ANDSF. We find that, as the initial romance of the Coalition commanders was replaced by harsh ground realities, their strategic goals underwent a series of fine-tuning measures. American filmmaker, author, and left-wing activist Michael Moore's views on what happened to the United States after September 11 and how George Bush Junior’s administration allegedly used the tragic event to push forward its agenda for unjust wars in Afghanistan and Iraq was depicted in the 2004 Hollywood movie “Fahrenheit 9/11”. Surprisingly, George Bush Junior, though he was ridiculed by the Democrats, had entered the war with more realistic goals.

General Inam rightly points out that:

Bush Administration abhorred nation-building. emphasis was on ‘basic food, medicine, and education programs. the focus remained on a ‘limited counterterrorism mission’. (So), Afghanistan was to have a small, light infantry force, rapidly deployable for maintaining internal peace. It was to comprise one central army corps with limited combat power to secure the October 2004 presidential elections and enable the US withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2004. The Corps was to be reliant upon the US/international forces for air support and other advanced capabilities……

“The US withdrawal got delayed due to the Obama era 2009 Afghan War Strategic Review, resulting in an 18-month counterinsurgency effort and military-civilian surge. Finally, under Trump Administration, the US implemented a new South Asia Strategy, negotiated an exit deal with the Taliban (2020), and left. Trump had made Afghanistan withdrawal a pledge during the 2016 election campaign, calling the war a complete waste', Although in 2017 his national security team briefly prevailed on him allowing a modest troops' increase to support ANDSF.”

 

Why did the US civil and military decision-makers take so long to disengage from a useless war in Afghanistan, even as they did the same mistake in Vietnam almost half a century ago? We will try to answer this question by taking a leaf from across the Durand Line.

The Honorable British East India Company, as the John Company preferred to be addressed, did not enter Hindustan to rule it. It was prevailed upon to do so by the Mughals. The Taj Mahal was commissioned in 1632 by Shah Jahan and was largely completed by 1643. By rough estimates, it cost 32 million rupees. The annual revenue during Shah Jahan’s reign was estimated between 18 and 30 million rupees. The building of the Taj Mahal depleted the Mughal treasury. Financial bankruptcy was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the Mughal rule in India. To meet the expenses of his government Shah Jhan leased out Bengal, Behar, and Orrisa to the British East India Company, even as Ishaque Dar has leased out Pakistan's motorways, airports, and other strategic assets to the IMF, World Bank, and ADB.

 

The reign of Shah Jahan marked the beginning of the financial bankruptcy of the Mughals. The revolts, the wars in the Deccan, followed Aurangzeb’s long military campaigns against the Marathas, putting an extra burden on the resources of the Empire. Finally, the licentious lifestyles of the later Mughals, the breakdown of the administration, and the loot of the Sikhs, Marathas, Nadir Shah, and Ahmad Shah Abdali broke the backbone of the financial system of the Mughal Empire. When these native centrifugal forces were repeatedly plundering Delhi, the East India Company conquered, subjugated, and brought under its control vast tracts of South Asia. The British East India Company was initially reluctant to rule India, but with time, the erstwhile shopkeepers learned the art of statecraft.

John Company helped Ranjit Singh to raise a modern and formidable Sikh army. Ranjit Singh died in 1839, but the strategic relationship between his fledgling Sikh state and its conquests in India’s North West Frontier had started during his lifetime with British help. It reached its apex with the Treaty of Amritsar in 1846 through which Jammu & Kashmir was sold to Gulab Singh.  John Company  did the same to prop up  Nizam of Hyderabad  – another of its strategic allies, against Tipu Sultan.

The British rule in India took almost one hundred years to consolidate. Had it not been for WWII, they would still be ruling us. Indirectly, they still are – Nehru felt proud of claiming that he was the last Englishman in India. Why are the Americans always in a hurry to enter a foreign land, and equally in a hurry to exit? Why these lengthy reports and lamentations after the withdrawal? What is behind America’s heartburn, and that of India, its strategic ally?

The First Kashmir War left Pakistan holding not only the mountain barrier separating the Valley from the plains of West Punjab but also in possession of Gilgit & Baltistan – A huge plug that blocks India’s expansion into Afghanistan and thence into Central Asia.  Later, the Sino-Indian border war effectively quarantined Tibet from India. While keeping in view Pakistan’s grievances, one should not be oblivious to America’s and India’s frustrations. In the 21^st Century, huge iron, copper, and natural gas deposits have been discovered in Afghanistan, not to mention the enormous gas reserves in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. America and India can have access to these natural deposits, but this giant plug is controlled by Pakistan and watched by China. The World is slowly transitioning from fossil fuels to lithium-powered vehicles. Again, huge lithium reserves have been found in Afghanistan and elsewhere in Central Asia. The US needs India as its poodle to lay its hands on these lithium reserves. A very informative and in-depth analysis by General Inam ul Haque.

Saleem Akhtar Malik

19 May 2023