What Next After the Regime Change in Pakistan?
10 April 2022:
Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed from office
after a no-confidence motion against him succeeded. He was replaced by Shehbaz
Sharif, a joint candidate of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) - a
conglomeration of opposition
parties lined up against Imran Khan.
PDM had accused Imran Khan’s fragile coalition of poor
governance, political victimization of opponents, and mismanaging the economy
and foreign policy. Several dissident members of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek – e – Insaf (PTI) also joined the onslaught against their leader
when PDM resorted to blatant horse-trading.
Even before the
launching of a confidence motion against his government, Imran Khan, without
initially pinpointing, had talked about a foreign hand. His subsequent
statements, though, and those by his close aides, pointed the smoking gun at the
US.
Shehbaz Sharif is the
younger brother of Nawaz Sharif -Imran Khan’s predecessor. Nawaz Sharif was
removed from office on 27 July 2017 after Pakistan’s Supreme Court held him
guilty of massive corruption. Like Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan Peoples Party’s
de facto chairman and a former president of Pakistan, Nawaz is considered a
status quo politician who is in America's good books. According to the popular
perception in Pakistan, the US was not happy with Nawaz Sharif’s removal.
12 April 2022 – The Economic Times:
“India and the US ask Pakistan
to take immediate, sustained, and irreversible action against terrorism. The
demand for action by Pakistan was made through a joint statement issued after
the 2+2 Ministerial attended by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and
Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and External
Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.”
Pakistan’s present political turmoil has spawned many
conspiracy theories, both against and in favor of the no-confidence motion. To Imran Khan’s supporters,
the ex-cricket- captain- turned politician was the victim of a foreign
conspiracy. To his detractors, he was an arrogant person who refused to
compromise with both his political opponents and foreign powers. There are many
dimensions to this hydra-headed crisis that has gripped the Islamic Republic.
In this analysis, I shall delimit myself to the external threats, particularly
to Pakistan’s nuclear program. The US was never happy with Pakistan’s quest for
a nuclear weapon.
Bhutto had assumed power on 20th
December 1971. He had the inklings of the internal
and external threats against truncated Pakistan in mind when on 20th
January 1972 he summoned a meeting of
Pakistani nuclear scientists at Quetta. He was a man in a hurry. After a day or two, the venue was shifted
to Multan due to Quetta’s
extremely cold weather. During the meeting, Bhutto asked
the scientists how much time they needed
to build a bomb. When they gave a long time frame, he raised his three fingers, telling them that he
needed the bomb within three years.
Unlike Zulfiqar Bhutto, Zia ul
Haq, and Benazir Bhutto, who had contributed significantly towards the advancement of the nuclear
program, Nawaz Sharif had done
nothing. It can be said that he stumbled upon the bomb and made political mileage out of it. Like a sword
wielded by a child, he wobbled while brandishing
it before India and the rest of the world (more so, to awe- struck his people). Pakistan is the only country
where fiberglass monuments have been erected
to celebrate the nuclear explosions, and where dummy missiles adorn the major road intersections. Dr. Abdul Qadeer, the
“father” of Pakistan’s nuclear program, had stated that Nawaz never wanted to
explode the bomb.
Throughout the development of
the nuclear bomb, Americans kept a close watch on the activities at Kahuta and elsewhere by recruiting moles and infiltrating them into Pakistan’s nuclear weapons facilities. So did the Indians, Soviets, Israelis, French, and many others.
A French diplomat was intercepted while traveling on the
Rawalpindi-Kahuta road and thoroughly beaten up. Later on, Zia rang up the diplomat
after he was evacuated to his residence, with many of his ribs broken. Zia consoled the diplomat with his characteristic modesty and
promised to bring the culprits to book. Indians were not so lucky and, whenever caught, were terminated after
being brutally beaten up. Monitoring and sniffing devices were
planted by the CIA in the vicinity of
the enrichment facility.
Many of these devices were found
by the security personnel, and disabled. However,
through some of the undetected sniffing devices, and
through their moles, the Americans were able to ascertain, from time to time, the level
of uranium enrichment at Kahuta.
The United States wants to defang Pakistan and bring it under the matrix of
Indian security – A Pax Indica under the umbrella of America’s strategic
partner. According to Goldberg & Ambinder (2011) “
During senate hearings for her confirmation as
secretary of state in 2005, Condoleeza Rice had remarked: “We have noted this problem, and we are prepared
to try to deal with it”.
Goldberg & Ambinder describe Pentagon’s plans for dealing
with various contingencies involving the
Pakistani nuclear crisis as follows:-
1. If a single
weapon or a small amount of nuclear
material were to go missing, the response would
be an Abbottabad redux.
2. Seizing control of –or at least disabling – the entire
Pakistani nuclear arsenal in the event of a Jihadist
coup or other catastrophic event. The scale of such an operation would be too
large. An across-the-board campaign would be
led by U.S. Central Command.
3. In a larger disablement campaign, the U.S. would likely
mobilize the Army’s 20th
Support Command, whose Nuclear Disablement Teams would accompany
Special Operations detachments or Marine companies into the country.
4. At the
same time, the U.S. military and intelligence forces have been quietly
pre-positioning the necessary
equipment in the region. In the event
of a coup, U.S forces
would rush into the country,
crossing borders, rappelling down from helicopters, and parachuting out of planes,
so they could secure known or suspected
nuclear-storage sites. Their first task might
be to disable tactical nuclear weapons – because those are more easily
mated, and easier
to move around, than long-range missiles.
Saleem Akhtar
Malik
12 April 2022
The author is a Pakistan Army veteran who regularly writes on national
and international affairs, defence, military history, and military technology. His talks on these subjects are aired on his YouTube Channel "The Observation Post". His blog "Sam1953.blogspot.com" features his articles. Tweets @saleemakhtar53.
REFERENCES
1. Bhutto, Z.A. (1979). If I am Assassinated. Vikas Publishers (PVT) Ltd.
2.Goldberg, J. & Ambinder, F. (2011). The Pentagon’s
secret plans to secure
Pakistan’s nuclear assets.
National Journal.
3.
Weisman, S. & Krosney, H (1981). The Islamic
Bomb. Times Books
Comments
Post a Comment