The Cliffhanger

 The Cliffhanger!

As if the nose rubbing in Afghanistan was not enough, the US has faced another humiliation, this time in Ukraine. In an earlier assessment, I had likened the US to a wounded giant – the famous Polyphemus in Homer’s classic – the Odyssey. Polyphemus was a man-eating giant-a monster with a single, orb-shaped eye in the middle of his forehead. Odysseus encountered him on his return from Troy and became trapped in the giant's cave. To escape, the hero plied him with wine and, as he slept, plunged a burning stake into his eye. 

 The U.S.-led war in Afghanistan began in October 2001in response to the September 11, 2001, attack on New York’s Twin Towers. Before invading Afghanistan the US, to the point of bullying, had grabbed Pakistan’s support in the “war against terrorism”. The United States Armed Forces, after a twenty-year useless war, completed their withdrawal from Afghanistan on 30 August 2021. Twenty years is too long a period to be called a “hasty retreat”.  Hardly six months thereafter, Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. To the US’ chagrin, and despite its warnings to Pakistan, PM Imran Khan was in Moscow when the Russian invasion started. Pakistan had refused to denounce the Russian invasion. 

According to the Islamabad grapevine, Uncle Sam is angry with Pakistan over its alleged support of the Taliban, and for crossing a red line by visiting Moscow. The present cliffhanger situation in Pakistan, where the US diplomats are holding meetings with the opposition leaders, is the expression of America’s anger.  The US is jilted because its forces had to beat a retreat from Afghanistan without achieving even a few of its strategic objectives for which it had invaded this country. In the aftermath of the Afghan War, the US wanted Pakistan to provide military bases from which it intended to retain its control over Central Asia- a region, like Eastern Europe, which Russia considers as its “Near Abroad” or sphere of influence. 

 In the prevailing scenario, is it prudent for Pakistan’s foreign policy planners to snub the wounded giant?  

  Despite the bitter experiences in the past, Pakistan needs the US even as the US needs Pakistan’s help for its face-saving in Eurasia. The relationship between the two countries had always been transactional, and it should remain such in the future also. Whereas Pakistan has come a long way in achieving self-reliance in most of its defense requirements, it still has a very fragile economy that needs indirect financial support and cutting-edge military technology which only the US can provide. 

Why is Pakistan's Deep State having second thoughts about supporting the present power setup?

 It is because the prevailing economic situation negatively impacts the armed forces. In addition, the specter of remaining on the FATF gray list and the need for heavy loan transfusions from IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank, will keep Pakistan dependent on the United States for times to come.  

Despite  recusal to provide military bases to the US, Pakistan is a "Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA)". According to the US Department of State, MNNA status provides Pakistan with certain benefits in the areas of defense, trade, and security cooperation. Pakistan also needs to bring China and the US together by removing the US apprehensions and misunderstandings about CPEC. For this to happen, US sensitivities and fears about Chinese activities in the India – Pacific region should be addressed.  

What happens in the South China Sea, particularly the Strait of Malacca, is closely linked with CPEC. China is developing CPEC to counter the US plan for blockading the Strait of Malacca in the event of a war between the US and China. The US, goaded by India, is contemplating embarking on yet another series of Quixotic adventures in the South China region. To facilitate this, the US is providing COMCASA compatible equipment to India to snoop on the Chinese navy and air force.  

Reportedly, the US wants India to monitor the Chinese submarine traffic through the Strait of Malacca and, if possible, block it for the Chinese shipping in a future war. Western think tanks say that India can easily block Chinese shipping by parking a few ships at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca. This is a hare-brained scheme. The Strait of Malacca, if blocked, will be blocked for all maritime traffic that passes through it. Short of providing bases to the US, Pakistan should bargain for the fruition of its strategic goals and interests. These may be translated into a win-win relationship between the two hitherto estranged allies.

 Saleem Akhtar Malik

6 March 2022

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