Pakistan's Threat Assessment and How to Counter the Challenges?

 The Threat Assessment

It has two dimensions 1) The enemy within, and 2) The external threats.

The Enemy Within

Presently the internal threat is more potent than the external one.  The constituents of internal threat are identified as 1) centrifugal forces; 2) terrorism, and 3) civil-military divide. Pakistan, since the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, has been fighting an undeclared war forced on it by India, Afghanistan, the United States, and Iran. The United Arab Emirates is also playing a role in destabilizing Pakistan.

 Unlike conventional wars, this type of war can neither be fought solely with conventional forces nor are these forces amply trained to fight such a war. After suffering considerable losses, the army, and the air force have learned their lessons as a result of which the terrorists in the northwest and the separatists in Balochistan are on the run. 

However, the internal war cannot be decisively won unless all the ingredients of the national security framework are fully enmeshed. These are 1) internal security; 2) foreign policy; 3) finance, and 4) defence. In this regard, the following aspects of the present situation are highlighted:-

a. Over the period, a crop of politicians, intellectuals, and media persons has emerged which questions the existing security narrative.According to them, it has been framed by the army. This is the main reason why the war against terrorism and (to an extent) separatism has lost its steam. The present situation in Pakistan needs declaring an emergency and promulgating the Defence of Pakistan Rules which will 1)curtail basic human rights; 2) Pave the way for military courts. The present set-up based on anti-terrorism courts is a half-hearted attempt that will not deliver the desired results.

b. Many politicians are deeply involved in terror financing, money laundering, and extortion. An unstable and weak Pakistan suit these people who thrive on borrowed power. Some of them are even prepared to bargain Pakistan’s nuclear assets to come/remain in power. The United States, since  long, is working on getting its hands on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in return for paying off its foreign debts.

The External Threats

With the present force ratios, India lacks the muscle to launch an aggression against Pakistan with conventional forces. According to the Indian schedules and assessments on the reorganization of forces, new raisings, induction of new weapons platforms, and mating the existing and new platforms with critical sensors /weapon systems, most likely by 2025 or thereabouts the Indian government and its armed forces will feel confident and comfortable enough to start considering about actualizing India’s strategic goals in the South Asian neighborhood. 

During this period Pakistan’s military will not be sitting idle. Chances are that even beyond 2025 India will not be able to wage a conventional war against Pakistan unless Pakistan is internally destabilized in a 71 like situation. What will India do? It has been discussed in detail how India is sponsoring the centrifugal forces in Pakistan. It will continue with its efforts to destabilize Pakistan and implode it through the indirect approach. Once the central authority in Pakistan is eroded, India will exploit the situation and augment the indirect approach with a series of military actions.

 In the past, India had been nibbling at Azad Kashmir and Baltistan and got away with it due to the ineptitude of Pakistan’s civil and military leadership. India’s most likely future thrust will remain focused on these areas. In the future, fighting in the mountainous terrain of Jammu, Kashmir, and Gilgit- Baltistan will no longer be characterized by slogging infantry attacks and conventional artillery duels. 

To generate battlefield mobility in the mountains, combined with a quick-shifting of fire, India is acquiring high altitude helicopters and ultra-light howitzers in large numbers. These, in conjunction with the precision-guided and standoff munitions held by IAF, will be used to dislodge Pakistani infantry from its defensive positions on the dominating heights.

India is raising a mountain strike corps to capture Aksai Chin, Gilgit, and Baltistan in a future two-front war against Pakistan and China. The likely objectives against Pakistan will be Skardu, Gilgit, and the proposed Bhasha Dam. An important task for this corps will be to disrupt the development of the projected China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) by destroying the communications network and important installations. This will materialize in the form of heliborne/ air assault landings in the rear of the objectives in conjunction with frontal assaults. Again, the military operation will be preceded by building upon the already simmering unrest in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan.

 This will bring Iran into the matrix of confrontation. Success in disrupting CPEC will hinge upon how effectively India plays the Shia card in this region. In the past, China remained silent when the Indian Army occupied Siachen glacier, and it remained indifferent during the Kargil war. With its strategic interests involved in CPEC, China’s future response will be different.

Pakistan’s northwestern and southwestern borders are no longer inert. We are well aware of the security environment along the Pak-Afghan border. However, the threat from Iran is rather underrated. In 2003, the president of Iran, Mohammad Khatemi, visited India as the chief guest for India’s republic day parade. During the visit, he and the Indian prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, signed the New Delhi Declaration, which became the basis of a strategic relationship between the two countries. Two months later, Iranian and Indian warships conducted joint naval exercises (Hathaway, 2014). According to the declaration:-

1. Indian arms sales to Iran were discussed.

2. India agreed to help train Iranian military personnel.

3. India would help Iran maintain its MIG-29 fighter aircraft.

4. New Delhi will have the right to use Iranian military bases for combat operations against Pakistan should another Indo- Pakistan war breaks out.5. India also agreed to assist in the development of Iranian port facilities and with the construction of road and rail links with Iran.

The extent to which Iran would extend cooperation to India during such a conflict is known in Pakistan. India is also using border areas of Afghanistan and Iran as staging areas for launching covert operations against Pakistan. Since the 1990s, India has tried to outflank Pakistan and open up a route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. 

The port of Chabahar, next to Gwadar, is central to India’s intentions. India and Iran agreed to develop Chabahar in 2003 but the venture moved slowly because of the sanctions over Iran’s nuclear programme. India thinks that its presence in Chabahar will neutralize the Chinese presence in nearby Gwadar. To this end, India and Iran, along with Russia, have talked about creating a Russo-Iranian- Indian transport corridor. Indian access to the Iranian ports and military bases will present Pakistan with the threat of a two-front war. 

Not only Iran, but also the other Gulf states, particularly UAE,  consider the development of Gwadar port and the projected China–Pakistan Economic Corridor as a threat to their economies. They, along with India, are supporting various separatist Baloch groups that have sprouted along the coastal belt of Balochistan during the last decade.

An important element that has remained elusive till now is the role Saudi Arabia and the UAE are playing to facilitate India in her plans about IIOJK. It will be a South Asian“Deal of the Century”, similar to Trump’s “Deal of the Century” which he had devised to snuff out any prospects for a future Palestinian state. Trump’s deal, which was rejected by the Palestinians, also leaned heavily ĺon UAE and Saudi support.

Reportedly, UAE and Saudi Arabia plan to invest USD 100 billion in J&K if Pakistan agrees to declare the LoC as a permanent border between Pakistan and India. We can understand the Saudi interest in finishing the Kashmir dispute. Saudi Arabia is much larger in size and economy than UAE. Under its Crown Prince, Saudia has ambitious plans to enhance its geostrategic reach. But why does the city-state of UAE, though rich in oil, try to punch above its height? This is a recent development that will constrain Pakistan's stand on Jammu & Kashmir.

Pakistan’s Response

To squarely face the challenges highlighted above, Pakistan needs to take the

following measures: -

Civil Dimension

1 Look inward for the most part of the 21st Century and consolidate itself, even as the Japanese did after Commodore Perry‘s blockade of the Tokyo Bay on 8th July 1853. It was only after building up its industrial and military power when Japan defeated Russia in the Russo-Japanese War. Japan was defeated during WW2 because at that time America was the sole nuclear power.

2. Concentrate on building up the economy.

3 According to investigative journalist Steve Coll’s article in the New Yorker, India and Pakistan, after intensive track II diplomacy, had very nearly reached an agreement that would have demilitarized Jammu & Kashmir. The plan called for the creation of an autonomous region in which local residents could move freely and conduct trade on both sides of the territorial boundary. Over time, the border would become irrelevant, and declining violence would allow a gradual withdrawal of tens of thousands of troops that now face one another across the region’s mountain passes. The stillborn plan was the only feasible solution to the complex Kashmir problem.

4. Build up international pressure against India and exploit UN resolutions wherever possible.

4. Pakistan must establish diplomatic relations with Israel to 1)Dilute the Indo-Israeli strategic relationship; 2) Counterbalance the Indo-Iranian strategic relationship.

Military Dimension

1. Do not provoke an armed confrontation with India. However, keep the powder dry.

2. Be prepared all the time to take on India if it threatens with military action across the LOC, Working Boundary, and the International border. This requires shifting all the civil population away from a 5-8 km belt all along the International border with India, and also along the Working Boundary.

3. What the Pakistan Army needs to do is to hold the LoC with force and determination Pakistan’s strategy, it appears, is to let the Indian Army fight and remain embroiled with the Kashmiri freedom fighters. 

4. A proactive military response along the western border with Iran and Afghanistan, based on forceful retaliation, is required.

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