Is another 71-like situation upon us?
Is Another December 71-Like Situation Upon Us?
I had written earlier:
The civil-military differences have reached a point where they have started blaming each
other for Pakistan’s ailments. The polarization has been such that some politicians do not hesitate to seek help from India, Pakistan’s archenemy. The trend, started by Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, has now influenced even some of Pakistan’s mainstream parties. Though the Cold War terminology of left, center, and right has become redundant, old affiliations die hard. It is in this context that some politicians to the left and center now question Pakistan Army’s threat assessment and accuse it of holding the nation hostage to the Kashmir dispute. They forget that the threat assessment was evolved by the civil governments. On the other hand, another group of politicians, with rightist leanings, openly, or tongue-in-cheek, have sympathies with the religious terrorists.
Unbeknownst to us, the 1971 war was, for all practical purposes, a 5th Generation War. And we must give credit to Indira Gandhi for choreographing the war. There were undercurrents that caused the 71 War.
Over the last half a century, the truth has trickled down to us drop by drop. Despite the massive disinformation to which the people of Pakistan had been subjected by the ruling classes, the people now understand that the 71 War was a corollary to the 65 War, where Bhutto had managed to take President Ayub Khan for a ride by deceiving him that sending infiltrators in IHK will not result in India attacking Pakistan across the International border.
Bhutto was privy to the fact that both India and Pakistan lacked the conventional military punch to knock out each other.
Bhutto knew that an all-out war between India and Pakistan would result in a political and military stalemate that would weaken Ayub Khan and pave the way for Bhutto’s entry into the corridors of power.
The US was angry with Ayub Khan for starting the 65 War and wanted to punish him as well as Bhutto, the mastermind behind the war.
Soon after the 1965 war, riots erupted in East Pakistan when Awami League demanded regional autonomy on the basis of Mujibur Rehman’s six points. In1968, a secession plan known as the Agartala Conspiracy came to the fore, and Mujibur Rehman, along with 34 others, including a Bengali CSP officer and personnel from the armed forces, was tried for treason. Mujib and his co-conspirators described Agartala as a hoax.
When Ayub Khan called a round table conference to discuss the agitation that had gripped Pakistan in 1968, West Pakistani politicians like Mumtaz Daultana refused to attend the conference unless Mujib, who was behind the bars for instigating the Agartala Conspiracy, was released and also invited to attend the conference.
Ayub Khan had to bow down to the opposition demand. Mujib was released and invited to the conference. Mujib participated in the conference, presented his famous six points, and again called the Agartala Conspiracy a hoax.
Awami League’s six points election manifesto suggested a loose federation where the central government would not have the power to levy taxes. The central government in such a setup would be completely dependent on the constituent units for running its day-to-day and long-duration affairs. It was essentially a blueprint for, initially a confederation, and subsequently outright independence.
On 7th March 2010, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid confessed that her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman did plan a comprehensive conspiracy to break Pakistan into 2 pieces with the help of the Indian government.
On 22nd February 2011, Shawkat Ali, the surviving co-conspirator and Deputy Speaker of the Bangladesh Parliament confessed to the parliament at a point of order that the charges read out to them were correct, stating that they had formed a Shangram Parishad (Action Committee) under Sheikh Mujib for the secession of East Pakistan.
The 71 War was a choreographed war which was planned in Beijing in November 1971 where Bhutto, Lieutenant General Gul Hasan, and Air Marshal Rahim Khan decided to wash their hands off East Pakistan and present it to Indira Gandhi on a platter by not launching any meaningful military operation in the western theatre. It was done to bring Bhutto into power.
As a quid pro quo, Gul Hasan and Rahim khan were to be rewarded by Bhutto by making Gul Hasan the Army chief and retaining Rahim Khan as the Air Chief.
Remember, during WWI Germany put Lenin and Trotsky, along with many Bolsheviks, on a train and smuggled them into Russia to topple Tzar Nicholas II. The Bolsheviks seized power in 1917 and, as quid pro quo to the German favor, Lenin made public the secret treaties between Germany and the Allies. The Pakistani Bolsheviks, led by Bhutto, facilitated the Indian and US designs to separate East Pakistan as part of their grand strategy.
According to Henry Kissinger, the US Secretary of State in 1971, his country was not against the separation of East Pakistan and the emergence of an independent Bangladesh, but the US had wanted it to happen in a peaceful manner.
In his interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, the Editor-in-Chief of “The Atlantic”, Kissinger reported that after the opening of China via Pakistan, America engaged in increasingly urging Pakistan to grant autonomy/ independence for Bangladesh.
In November Yahya Khan agreed with Nixon to grant independence in the following March (1972, sic). Indira Gandhi, however, did not want a peaceful resolution of the civil war in East Pakistan.
Instead, she had labored over a plan to invade the beleaguered Pakistani province and render the Bengalis beholden forever to India for assisting them in the Awami League’s quest for secession.
This would also enable India to keep the Bengalis under its thumb. In November 1971, India, leaning on the military treaty* it had concluded with the Soviet Union in August the same year, invaded East Pakistan in order to pre-empt Yahya’s understanding with Kissinger (Goldberg,2016).
*The so-called Indo–Soviet Treaty of “Peace, Friendship and Cooperation” was signed between India and the Soviet Union in August 1971. It specified strategic cooperation between the two countries and was aimed at countering the increasing Sino-American ties perceived by India as a threat to its ambitions about dismembering Pakistan. The treaty played an important role in the 71 War.
The Geopolitical Situation in 2022
In 2022,we are facing an almost similar situation in Pakistan. A series of political and economic crises have gripped the country. There are palace intrigues amid hyperinflation, an American installed government, and Imran Khan threatening to launch a countrywide movement aimed at forcing the government to announce general elections. The government sponsored media is in cohorts with India and the West to destabilize the country, and prostitutes, in the garb of social, political and media activists, are ruling the roost.
In 1971, India incubated and promoted an insurgency in East Pakistan through its Trojan horses – Mujib, Bhutto, the Pakistan Times Gang of leftist media, activists like Malik Ghulam Jillani (Asma Jehangir’s father), professor Waris Mir (HamidMir’s father), and pro-India politicians like Wali Khan, Bizenjo, and Mufti Mehmood.
Look at the lineup now- Media houses like Jang –Geo and Dawn groups, Nawaz Sharif (PPP is more interested in saving its looted wealth), Fazalur Rehman, and batteries of sponsored journalists belonging to the Maryam Safdar Brigade are playing the same role in destabilizing Pakistan.
The major difference between 1971 and 2021 is that Pakistanis are better aware of the machinations that are being hatched in New Delhi, London, and Washington, in that order of precedence.
The armed forces are much more prepared to face India on the battlefield. However, the outcome of this organized chaos will not be decided on a kinetic war because India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers now, hence the “Sex, Lies, and Videotape” approach by our enemies!
Sex, Lies, and Videotape is a 1989 American independent drama film written and directed by Steven Soderbergh. The plot tells the story of a troubled man who videotapes women discussing their sexuality and fantasies, and his impact on the relationships of a troubled married couple and the wife's younger sister.
I leave it to the readers to make out who is the troubled man in this mega drama, whose porn shop is making the dirty videos, and who are the targets!
This time, India and the US, along with Britain, the US poodle, will not launch a military operation against Pakistan unless they make sure, through their Pakistani proxies, that the war will be a walkover for them.
The Way Forward
A consensus on the economy, internal and external security, and a viable democracy should be reached by all the stakeholders concerned.
There are watchdog institutions in almost all countries. These institutions spring into action to autocorrect whenever chaos grips a society.
To perform the act of auto-correction, a country should have strong ruling parties as in the case of Malaysia and Singapore, a communist party in the case of China, royal families in the Gulf states, or the watchdog institution of clerics, in Iran’s case.
We do not have strong political parties. What is democracy in the context of Pakistan? There are a few political dynasties ruling the roost. These dynasties control the political parties where there are no internal elections and an inner circle makes all the important appointments. The parties are run like fiefs and the electorate is hoodwinked through false promises and catchy slogans.
We cannot allow, like China, a communist party to control all the aspects of society. We are not a pseudo-democracy like Iran, hence no Walayat-e-Faqih. Also, we are not absolute monarchies like the Gulf states, hence no royal families are to be allowed. The present tumult, though, is because, in the past, two political dynasties had started behaving like royal families
Finally, IK might be a weak ruler – governance is different from playing cricket. But rest assured that Shahbaz Sharif, despite sending funny Tweets and donning an equally funny hat, is not the replacement. So is the case with Bilawal – Zardari’spublic face. Till the situation improves, the Army will play a larger-than-life role in Pakistan.
As the sole warrior against status quo, presently, IK is pitted against the entire corrupt system which is trying to eliminate him from politics through underhand methods. People ask, what if he is removed from Pakistan's national decision-making process? Will Pakistan survive? If so, for how long?
Saleem Akhtar Malik
22 August 2022
The author is a Pakistan Army veteran who regularly writes on national and international affairs, defence, military history, and military technology. His talks on these subjects are aired on his YouTube Channel "The Observation Post". His blog "Sam1953.blogspot.com" features his articles. Tweets @saleemakhtar53.
REFERENCES
1. Goldberg, J. (2016). World Chaos and World Order: Conversations with Henry
Kissinger. The Atlantic.
2. Khan, G.H. (1993). Memoirs of Lt. Gen. Gul Hassan Khan.Oxford University Press.
3. Kissinger, H. (2011). White House Years.Simon & Schuster.
4. Maneckshaw. S. Transcript of the interview given to Bharat Defence Kavach. Retrieved
from www.youtube.com
5. Mazari, S.B. (1999). A Journey to Disillusionment. Oxford University Press; p. 217.
6. Noorani, A.J. (2012). The Polish resolution. Retrieved from ww w .criterion-
quarterly.com.
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